Authors

Victor Lundström¹, Peter Yaworsky^2,3, and Felix Riede^2,3

¹ Department of Cultural History, University Museum of Bergen, University of Bergen, P.O. Box 7800, N-5020, 6 Bergen, Norway. victor.lundstrom@uib.no

² Department of Archaeology and Heritage Studies, Aarhus University, Moesgård Allé 20, 8270 Højbjerg, Denmark. p.yaworskycas.au.dk

³ Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO), Department of Biology, Ny Munkegade 116, 8000 Aarhus C

Abstract

Changes in human demography form the nexus for ecological, biological and cultural dynamics. Southern Scandinavia provides an excellent case for studying these domains as changing coastlines, retreating glaciers and warmer temperatures continuously re-configured the conditions for hunter-fisher-gatherer lifeways throughout the Late Glacial and most of the Holocene. In this paper, we incorporate two analytical protocols in order to provide a richer understanding of how the ‘safe operating space’ (Dearing et al., 2014) unfolded for initially highly mobile pioneers and later more sedentary groups of foragers. We do this by coupling (i) spatially explicit modelling of the potential eco-cultural niche in order to then (ii) up-scale population estimates derived from the ethnographic record. We then benchmark these against a summed probability distribution under the assumption that larger numbers of people dispose greater frequencies of radiocarbon dated remains. Ultimately, this allows us to explore long-term changes in human population levels and how those affected changes in landscape use. Our results indicate that much of southern Scandinavia was unsuitable for any long-term habitation at the end of the Late Glacial. It was not until the early Holocene when temperatures increased and stabilized, that people began to move into previously uninhabited parts of Scandinavia.

The occupied niche space appears to have been focused largely on the coast and lakes, suggesting that aquatic resource patches became increasingly important for both subsistence and communication. It is only in the period between ca. 7000-6000 cal BP that all available niche space would have been occupied. Our demographic estimates conform to a general pattern in which the population grew gradually with recurring boom and bust cycles as temperatures improved at the onset of the Holocene, and this growth unfolded simultaneously as the niche expanded. However, we do not find that a growing population exerted any resource pressures that would have prompted specific choices for different habitats. It is very likely that a continuously growing niche space outstripped the need for moving to lower ranking habitats. Furthermore, although slightly offset from each other in time, estimates from a summed probability distribution, as well as our total population estimates, indicate a 2000-year long decline after ca. 10,000 cal BP, which is replaced with population growth from 8000 cal BP. However, while our absolute estimates indicate a plateau in population growth towards the onset of the Early Neolithic, our summed probability distribution indicates, contrary to past assertions, that populations continued to grow without any major interruptions. Finally, as these reflect changes in the overall metapopulation, further work needs to be aimed at breaking down how population dynamics played out at regional scales.

Dearing, J. A., Wang, R., Zhang, K., Dyke, J. G., Haberl, H., Hossain, Md. S., Langdon, P. G., Lenton, T. M., Raworth, K., Brown, S., Carstensen, J., Cole, M. J., Cornell, S. E., Dawson, T. P., Doncaster, C. P., Eigenbrod, F., Flörke, M., Jeffers, E., Mackay, A. W., … Poppy, G. M. (2014). Safe and just operating spaces for regional social-ecological systems. Global Environmental Change, 28, 227–238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.012